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Sunday, July 01, 2007


Civilian Deaths/Iraqi Security Forces Deaths Drop Dramatically In Baghdad

As an addendum to Whistler’s post earlier today, here’s some evidence from Iraq that the surge is working.

  BAGHDAD—Iraqi civilian deaths in Baghdad dropped significantly in June, a possible indication that recent American military operations around the country and raids on car-bomb shops in the “belts” ringing the capital are starting to pay off.

  But June also marked the end of the bloodiest quarter for U.S. troops since the war began in March 2003.

  Unofficial figures compiled by McClatchy Newspapers’ show 189 Iraqis, including police and government security forces, were killed in the capital through Friday, a drop of almost two thirds since this year’s high in February, when 520 were killed. The average monthly death toll of Iraqis in Baghdad was 410 from December through May.

  The downturn in civilian deaths in Baghdad, should the figures hold, could arm Lt. Gen. David Petraeus, the top U.S. military commander in Iraq, with the kind of results he needs to forestall pressure to set timetables on troop withdrawals. He is scheduled to deliver a progress report on the war to Congress in September.

This, of course, won’t get as much attention as the media gives the “car bomb of the day,” but it’s welcome news none-the-less.  The trend will have to continue until at least September, when Petraeus talks with Congress again, in order for it to be meaningful, however.

But it is interesting to see these results now that the surge forces have been fully deployed in Iraq.  Many Democrats have been implying, and even outright saying, that the surge is a “failure” for months now.  Yet throughout all of that the entire surge force had not hit the ground yet.

The success of those forces may well have many politicians eating crow.

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