Say Anything Blog

So CBS News did an investigation - asking all 50 states for their suicide data, based on death records, for veterans and non-veterans, dating back to 1995. Forty-five states sent what turned out to be a mountain of information.

And what it revealed was stunning.

In 2005, for example, in just those 45 states, there were at least 6,256 suicides among those who served in the armed forces. That’s 120 each and every week, in just one year.

Interesting.  They have “a mountain of information”, but only offer us figures on 2005.  How about giving us the mountain of information comparing 2005 to 2000 to 1995.  And how about describing Veteran’s status to include more than simply “Veteran” or “non-Veteran”.  Veteran does not mean served overseas or served in wartime or served between “JAN2003-TODAY” or anything else.

Let me contrast what they said in one paragraph with the other:

CBS News’ investigative unit wanted the numbers, so it submitted a Freedom of Information Act request to the Department of Defense asking for the numbers of suicides among all service members for the past 12 years.

Four months later, they sent CBS News a document, showing that between 1995 and 2007, there were almost 2,200 suicides. That’s 188 last year alone. But these numbers included only “active duty” soldiers.

Versus:

In 2005, for example, in just those 45 states, there were at least 6,256 suicides among those who served in the armed forces

So somehow CBS News redefines what a military suicide is to include any person who might have ever worn a uniform and goes from an Army number of 188 in 2006 and 2200 in 12 years of a military of a million and a half people and uses some fuzzy logic to come up with 6256 military suicides in a single year along.  They are saying that they reasonably believe that the actual suicide rate of veterans is almost 30 times greater than what the Army reports is the ACTUAL NUMBER OF ACTIVE DUTY SERVICE MEMBERS THAT COMMIT SUICIDE.

Every suicide is an individual with their own set of issues.  Many have marital problems.  Many have financial problems.  Many suffer depression from PTSD or from other factors from things that occur.  But these are part of what militaries do. 

CBS is trying to create a story that does not exist.  If there were 2200 suicides from 1995 to 2007 (and this actually was probably through FY2007 which ends in September) that is 12 years.  12 or 13.  And the rate is 2200 over 12-13 years… that is roughly, mmm, say… 175 per year for the last decade plus.  And last year alone we had 188 suicides according to CBS.  We had six years of wartime deployments and six on non-wartime figures.  The mean annual suicide total of Active Duty servicemen is 175.  Last year we were at 188.  Is that a statistically significant departure from the mean?

But you throw around a number of 6200 and you try to make it sound like a Government conspiracy or an Army cover-up and you got yourself a story for the MSM.

I was sceptical at first—I’ve always “heard” that teenage girls were the highest risk group.

I was wrong.  This is a good post.

http://www.who.int/mental_health/prevention/suicide/suiciderates/en/

[Feet make good soup!]

I argued this down on Angry Dakota Democrat’s blog.

It’s sad, but war leaves broken people. Always has. Always will. It tells us nothing about our current war, or even Bush.

It’s sad, but war leaves broken people.

It’s also sad when a young person in uniform, in time of peace, succumbs to despair and takes their own life.
To try to score political points with these sad facts is ghoulish.

Trolls. It’s what’s for breakfast!
And then I eat their lunch.

It’s also sad when a young person in uniform, in time of peace, succumbs to despair and takes their own life.
To try to score political points with these sad facts is ghoulish.

And THAT’S the bottom line…

I was sceptical at first—I’ve always “heard” that teenage girls were the highest risk group.

I was wrong.  This is a good post.

You are actually not as wrong as you think. Females have the highest rate of suicide attempts, while males have the highest rates of successfully commiting suicide.

Here in our local radio market a series of PS commercials by Charley Daniels targets suicide among young adults and teens. And these ads are not new. Suicide among young adults/teens is indicative of much deeper societal issues, ones the left and major media/entertainment industry is fighting to ignore.

I would like to see the breakdown between combat vet suicides and non-combat vet suicides. If the numbers supported the lefts contention about GWoT destroying people’s lives they would be banner headlining those numbers. Instead we get thinly veiled innuendo.

Una Salus Victus Nullam Sperare Salutem

To try to score political points with these sad facts is ghoulish.

how is this political?

Yun Chu said, “You must strictly not express in words what is very significant. Both dragon and snake are killed in one blow.”

It’s political because the unspoken assumption is “suicides?  Yikes!  Let’s get out of Iraq!”, Sparkie.

Moreover, not only is the sex of the person an issue, but also the age is an issue.  Young men do have a higher rate, I believe, than many others.  So to find a slightly higher suicide rate among military veterans is not a surprise, even without issues such as PTSD.

Not that we should ignore the possibility that we’ve got an awful lot of broken people.  It’s just that this statistic doesn’t prove the problem.

how is this political?

Clearly this reporting is agenda driven because of the way that they compiled their own statistics as opposed to highlighting the Army statistics.

If this is about 6200 vets of Military service of any length at any time killing themselves in a given year, perhaps this is a statement that the VA is inadequate or we need more funds or we need more awareness.  If it is about Iraq, which is clearly what they are saying by not providing context of any of the previous 10 years for comparison, then it is just deceiving statistics.  Or maybe it is to point out that the government lies about the true cost of military service or of war.  Or that soldiers are stupid and uneducated and when they come home and realize they have been hoodwinked and that they have sad pathetic lives, they shoot themselves.  Pick an agenda.

I hate to go into all of this here, but I get my treatment for depression at the VA because I got discharged for a medical condition, have a service connected disability, and VA mental healthcare is free.  No copays for drugs (which is the biggest reason), bi-weekly counselling, actual face time with my psychiatrist as opposed to the get you in get you out way most private practice docs do it.  Small formulary of meds, but I take one really expensive med that they had to get preapproval for that costs me $60 a month, plus I have two others that I have a $15 copay for each.  That is $100 a month.  Plus no copay for shrink and counsellor visits which are $30 on my healthcare plan.

What I am saying is that the VA serves us crazies (you know depressed folks like me with only minor psychotic features) very VERY well.  I see all kinds of kids in their mid and early 20’s at the hospital.  I don’t like the statistics and the anecdotal references because the VA does a damned good job of helping folks.  I see the PTSD group therapy sessions posted all over.  Even smoking cessation is free.

"Put simply, when the numbers are adjusted for demographics there really is no difference between the number of veteran suicides and the number of civilian suicides.  Thus, no “epidemic.””

However, according to CBS:

“Rathbun adjusted the rates of suicide for age, gender and any potential error in the gathering of the raw data by the states. The results reflect that potential margin of error by showing a range in the rates of suicide among veterans.”

DJ, that’s the claim, but the article does not attain to any such depth of nuance.  It merely compares the mostly male population of former soldiers to the mixed male-female population of our country.

That’s simply a bait & switch, nothing less.

Not that we should ignore the possibility that we’ve got an awful lot of broken people.  It’s just that this statistic doesn’t prove the problem.

I agree with this.  I’m all for getting people considering suicide the help they need, but clearly there isn’t an “epidemic” of suicides among veterans as they are, statistically, no more prone to suicide than the average citizen.

When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty.

-- Thomas Jefferson

Rob’s recently listened-to songs:

Rob.  Correct.  The one we had here in SC with about 3,000 deployed had previously refused to list a phone number, address or emergency contact with family services.  He had issues well before deployment.  He was in the Army National Guard.  In fact, I will try to take a look at Angry N. Dakotan soon.

Communism is evil

how is this political?

Simple. Soldiers have a stressful job. They know going in that there are risks. War is hardly fun, and quite a few people come out of it broken people. The same is true for other high stress, dangerous, civil servant positions like cop, firefighter, doctor and paramedic.

But no one shows outrage over cops or firefighters being left mentally scarred, their marrages left in shambles, them becoming abusive, or any other problem they face. Because there are just no political points to be scored by complaining about this. No one claims that a dead cop is reason enough to stop patroling Harlem (that suggestion sounds idiotic), but a soldier commiting suicide? We need to leave Iraq immediately!

It’s disgusting and it’s dishonest.

Look people read the damn thing before you criticize it.

“We asked the acting head of epidemiology and biostatistics at the University of Georgia, Steve Rathbun, to calculate the rate of suicide for 2004 to 2005. Rathbun adjusted the rates of suicide for age, gender and any potential error in the gathering of the raw data by the states. The results reflect that potential margin of error by showing a range in the rates of suicide among veterans.”

They already controlled for gender and age before they presented the statistics, like any non-brain dead person would do.  You are looking at numbers that have already been adjusted.  Control yourselves and read an article that upsets you all the way through before claiming that CBS is just pushing its anti-war agenda.

Skyler, as I noted to DJ, the article does NOT make this clear.  Let me quote:

(Veterans committed suicide at the rate of between 18.7 to 20.8 per 100,000, compared to other Americans, who did so at the rate of 8.9 per 100,000.)

Again, the trouble with this is that it does NOT adjust for race, sex, and so on.  Yes, they claim the adjustment, but then deliver unadjusted numbers, presumably for impact.  Yes, this is a clumsy bait & switch.

Bubba,

I have no idea what “attain to any such depth of nuance” means in your reply to DJ, but CBS states its data is adjusted for gender and age.  Under that statement, on the methodology page it gives the following number as the

ADJUSTED VET SUICIDE RATE:

Overall Rates
Veterans: 18.7 to 20.8 per 100,000
Non-Veterans: 8.9 per 100,000

That’s the same number you gave me from their article.  There is no “bait-and-switch” or whatever you think goes on.

Clearly it was not clear enough for me to tell you click on the methodology section yourself.  The link is Here

Apparently they’ve gotten annoyed that nobody will bother to read their study before accusing of them of bait-and-switch and being anti-military or whatever so they’ve now re-emphasized a 2nd time in their methodology page so you can’t miss it that the data is adjusted.

Skyler, try reading it again.  The suicide rate for veterans really ought to be compared to the suicide rates for men, as something like 93-95% of veterans, and nearly 100% of combat veterans, are male.

However, the 8.9/100k figure is the figure for the population as a whole, which is (if you hadn’t noticed lately) about 50% female.

In other words, they promised that the numbers were adjusted, but the actual numbers they present first are clearly not adjusted for sex and other factors.

That is called “bait & switch,” and it’s typically used by those who are trying to advance a particular idea without anyone noticing.

Bubba,

As they nicely explain:

“There are two ways to run rates of suicide: “crude” and “adjusted.” Crude is a basic calculation that does not take into consideration the make-up of the population. Adjusted rates are a more sophisticated statistical calculation (beyond simple mathematics) that takes into consideration variables unique to a particular population like age and gender.”

Both populations are adjusted Bubba, is that your confusion?  Honestly, I don’t understand your argument at all, but I can see you don’t know anything about advanced statistics.  You can’t replicate those calculations with high school stat on your calculator, and you also can’t do it without access to the original data sets with their millions of data-entries.  It’s not possible to look at this data, with its million of data-entries and unknown adjustment equations, and get a feel that it’s wrong. 

Those numbers are what comes out AFTER they account for gender and sex.  How else can you say it?

I think that must be your confusion Bubba, all the figures are adjusted, and that includes the 8.9 F stat, to provide accurate comparison despite the differences in the composition of vets/nonvets/ and the general population.

I’m not confused.  You are.

http://www.sprc.org/stateinformation/PDF/statedatasheets/sprc_national_data.pdf

Take a look at the actual data from the SPRC.  80% of suicides are men, with a rate of 18.8/100k, not 8.9/100k.

Sorry, you just can’t take their word on their statistics and tell me they’re presenting the proper analysis.  In this case, they clearly are not.

Look at the actual numbers.  Look at them.  CBS is not reporting adjusted numbers here. 

Ask yourself why they’re not doing so.  Maybe it has something to do with the fact that when they use the proper measures, most of the problem disappears too.