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Saturday, January 28, 2006

Cars Lasting Longer The Real Reason For Auto Industry Woes?

Hmm...
WASHINGTON - Back in the 1970s when Pat Goss was working in automotive repair, 100,000 miles was considered the benchmark of a car's longevity. Well-maintained Dodge Darts with more than 300,000 miles were a rarity. Now, with advanced technology, improved engines and synthetic oils, crossing the 100,000-mark on the odometer is not much cause for celebration.

"We consistently, on any given day, usually have multiple cars with 150,000 to 250,000 miles and quite frequently cars well over that," said Goss, owner of Goss' Garage in Seabrook, Md., and host of radio and TV car-talk shows.

A report released this week by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said passenger cars and light trucks are racking up more miles than ever. Typical passenger cars are now surpassing 150,000 miles, while most pickups, sport utility vehicles and vans are crossing the 180,000-mile barrier.

A report in 1995 said most passenger cars broke 125,000 miles and light trucks typically reached the 150,000-mile mark.

Auto industry officials say it underscores the strides made in engineering and quality control in recent years with a focus on longterm durability. Today's vehicles have more advanced engines, improved spark plugs, higher-performance synthetic oils and better exhaust systems.

This makes me wonder...if cars are lasting longer in the market wouldn't it be logical to conclude that this would drive down demand for new cars?  And if that's true, couldn't it also be true that this increased durability has played into the woes faced by Ford and General Motors of late?

Foreign auto makers have long outstripped domestic car companies in terms of producing durable automobiles, so I would expect that the increases in longevity detailed above have to do, mostly, with an increase in the quality of domestic car craftsmanship.  And if product turnover in the domestic auto market has decreased it means that domestic car companies, primarily Ford and General Motors, are selling fewer cars.

If you couple this reality with the fact that these companies are unable, in a lot of ways, to reduce costs and adapt to a changing market thanks to stiff wage and labor requirements foisted upon them by unions -  and to a lesser extent the federal government - you can see where a lot of the problems being faced by Ford and General Motors are coming from.

At least, that's what it looks like to this observer.  It may well be that these companies did such a good job increasing the quality of their products that they've worked themselves in to a corner.

Comments

Avatar for FreeRepublicans.com

Yes.  Cars last longer.

Japanese cars last longer than American cars.  This is why the American car companies in trouble.

The Japanese built better cars, with stronger engines, that last longer, and that are cheaper to buy and maintain (especially if you do the work yourself).

FreeRepublicans.com on January 28, 2006 at 08:02 am
Avatar for Alex Nunez

Lik,

Leasing is prevalent, that’s why u see so many later model cars on the road. Incidentally, that’s also why there are so many high-value , low-mile, optioned-up used cars available now.

Alex Nunez on January 28, 2006 at 09:01 am
Avatar for Alex Nunez

GM’s and Ford’s (to a lesser extent) problems are multi-faceted, but have more to do with product that is inferior than with their cars lasting longer.

Longevity is where the Japanese and Europeans excel. The cars are just better (especially Japan, and in particular, Toyota). Granted GM and Ford do have bright spots, and the offerings from The Chrysler Group are pretty spectacular across the board (in fact, I expect to see longevity become common among the Chrysler products as a result of the German infuence of their parent company.)

Cool topic. I’ll probably post a longer take on this myself later.

Alex Nunez on January 28, 2006 at 09:01 am
Avatar for nobrainer

I don’t think the Big 3 would have done themselves any favors had they not improved quality over the last twenty-five years or so. 

This is a bit before my time, but I recall hearing people complain about the cars from the 70s designed with planned obsolescence.  The idea, I reckon, was that if the average driver was going to go 100,000 miles and then sell the car, why not make a cheaper car that was only good for 100,000 miles.

The Hondas and Toyotas of the world didn’t embrace that strategy.  So 10 or 15 years down the line, it really became apparent to carbuyers here that those cars were well worth the investment. 

I think that the gradual shift in perception was justified, but it took a while.  Now car quality from the Big 3 is significantly improved, but it will probably take a while before the general consumer will realize it.  Admittedly it may still not be where the “imports” are in long term quality.  That is probably because cars from the Big 3, to be comparable in the showroom, can’t be built as well for the long-term due to the handicap of wages/benefits.

So to some extent increased car-life is hurting the Big 3, but probably because they didn’t embrace that kind of design earlier.  Had the Big 3 not increased quality over the last couple decades, their sales would likely have eroded even faster.

Certainly a healthy used car market serves as a nice alternative to the new car market.  But as wealth has accumulated in America, 2 car families are probably the norm, with many having 3 or 4.  The market for new cars is still quite strong.

So I guess I pretty much agree with the original post up until the last paragraph. 

It may well be that these companies did such a good job increasing the quality of their products that they’ve worked themselves in to a corner.

The Big 3 got behind the curve years ago.  If they hadn’t improved, things would have been worse & sooner.
nobrainer on January 28, 2006 at 09:02 am
Avatar for likwidshoe

I don’t know. Looking around, I see that most cars are five to six years old and younger. We’re a nation that continuously buys new cars. Maybe we’re driving a bit more.

likwidshoe on January 28, 2006 at 09:02 am
Avatar for Zsa Zsa

My husband drives a Mitsubishi Montero 1990 with 220000 miles on it and he will not get rid of it! ... I keep telling him that he really has gotten his money’s worth out of it! ...

Zsa Zsa on January 28, 2006 at 12:02 pm
Avatar for 2Hotel9

I am in a 4Runner, ‘96, with 180,000 currently. I plan to drive it till it falls over dead. I will then beat hell out of it with a 2x4 and drive it another 150,000. Of course with oil changes and a rebuild on the front suspension which is well under $1000. I have owned 2 Fords,a Dodge, a Jeep Wagoneer, and an AMC Eagle. I would like to do a lateral and get a HMMWV, not a H2 or H3. A 3/4 cab with cargo bed would do nicely. Put a 1000lbs overhead rack and narrow profile tires on it and that would be the hot ticket.

2Hotel9 on January 28, 2006 at 03:01 pm
Avatar for Zsa Zsa

2Hotel9… I see you are getting your money’s worth out of your car too! I wonder if it is a man thing? I am mechanically challenged and so if something goes wrong I haven’t any idea what mechanics are talking about! They might as well be speaking in Chinese…

Zsa Zsa on January 28, 2006 at 04:01 pm
Rob
Rob
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I was only suggesting increased durability as one factor in the problems faceed by domestic car companies (exacerbrated by labor unions).  Obviously, losing market share to foreign competitors is another factor


When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty.

-- Thomas Jefferson

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Rob on January 28, 2006 at 05:01 pm
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