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Sunday, October 22, 2006

Bush Coming Out With Timetable For Iraq?

This would certainly be an about-face in Bush’s foreign policy if what is forthcoming is as it is described here:

WASHINGTON, Oct. 21 — The Bush administration is drafting a timetable for the Iraqi government to address sectarian divisions and assume a larger role in securing the country, senior American officials said.

Details of the blueprint, which is to be presented to Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki before the end of the year and would be carried out over the next year and beyond, are still being devised. But the officials said that for the first time Iraq was likely to be asked to agree to a schedule of specific milestones, like disarming sectarian militias, and to a broad set of other political, economic and military benchmarks intended to stabilize the country.

Although the plan would not threaten Mr. Maliki with a withdrawal of American troops, several officials said the Bush administration would consider changes in military strategy and other penalties if Iraq balked at adopting it or failed to meet critical benchmarks within it.

A senior Pentagon official involved in drafting the blueprint said Iraqi officials were being consulted as the plan evolved and would be invited to sign off on the milestones before the end of the year. But he added, “If the Iraqis fail to come back to us on this, we would have to conduct a reassessment” of the American strategy in Iraq.

In a statement issued Saturday night, a White House spokeswoman, Nicole Guillemard, said the Times’s account was “not accurate,” but did not specify what officials found to be inaccurate.

The New York Times is calling this a “timetable,” but given that the anonymous source for this information is apparently describing the new plan as a “schedule of specific milestones” I’m not sure that “timetable” is entirely accurate.

A timetable, to me, means specific dates.  It would go something like “Iraqi forces will take over control of Baghdad on December 1st and Falluja on December 15th and then American troops will leave on December 30th.” A “schedule of specific milestones” means, to me at least, something entirely different.  More along the lines of “First Iraqi forces will take control of Baghdad, then they’ll take control of Fallujah and then Americans will leave.” That is still a schedule for withdrawal, but it doesn’t have any specific dates.  Which means that it wouldn’t really be a reversal of Bush administration policy.

I think President Bush has been right all along to reject a schedule of hard dates for our mission in Iraq.  War is a very fluid thing.  Trying to live by a schedule of arbitrary dates in an environment as chaotic and full of twists and turns as war is just plain foolish.  Not only because any sort of a hard schedule isn’t likely to survive the realities of the war in Iraq, but also because such a schedule can be manipulated for propaganda purposes by our enemies.  Any time we’d have to push a date back for operational reasons or whatever our enemies would declare a victory.  They’d claim that their “glorious” opposition to the “American infidels” is causing us problems.

Which is probably why so many of President Bush’s political enemies want a hard schedule in Iraq.  They can use the hard dates for their own propaganda purposes just as the terrorists do.  If we set a date for giving Iraqis control of a particular province or city and then have to push that date back because of some sort of setback the Democrats would undoubtedly seize upon the date change as evidence of the fact that America is losing in Iraq regardless of whether or not such a statement is warranted or not.  The Democrats desperately want the war in Iraq to appear to be a failure, and an arbitrary schedule of hard dates in Iraq would, because those dates would undoubtedly have to change given the fluid situation, give them plenty of opportunities to do just that.

Like most Democrat ideas for Iraq, a timetable for withdrawal is not about sound foreign policy.  It’s about making Iraq look like a failure (or even be a failure) so that they can use the war as a political weapon against the President.

Comments

Avatar for gregdn

Well Rob, we gotta do something.  I read an interview with Maliki recently in which he promised to tackle the militias “late this year or next year”.  He’s got a pretty relaxed timeframe considering our troops are dying daily.

gregdn on October 22, 2006 at 12:03 pm
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Right.  I’m not opposed to holding Maliki’s feet to the fire, and a “schedule of milestones” is the right ticket for that.  But setting a hard date for withdrawal is still just dumb.


When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty.

-- Thomas Jefferson

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Rob on October 22, 2006 at 12:05 pm
Avatar for gregdn

Rob:
How would you propose to pressure him?  Jeez, with allies like that guy who needs enemies!

gregdn on October 22, 2006 at 12:13 pm

Establishing a withdrawal schedule based on a list of milestones is an important step forward, nonetheless.  If liberals (the party of “words mean what we want them to mean") can’t distinguish that from a timetable, then tough for them.

But it’s important psychologically to many Iraqis to have a commitment for withdrawal tied to realizable goals, and that may help with some of the “I’m fighting because you’re on my land” style of insurgents.

Carrick on October 22, 2006 at 12:25 pm
Avatar for aNONOMISLY

In other news, ..Rove doles out a classic against the Democrats! ..:

Rove Road-Tests Tougher Attack on Democrats

The basic themes—that voters face a stark choice between the parties on taxes and terrorism—have been a Bush standard. But Rove, who once claimed liberals preferred “therapy” to war against terrorists, delivered them with an acerbity not seen from his boss.

For instance, he needled congressional Democrats for voting against a GOP plan to try terrorist suspects at the Guantanamo Bay prison in Cuba. Many Democrats said the plan violated basic rights, but Rove rejected that. “You need to have the ability to try these people without worrying about the ACLU showing up saying, ‘Wait a minute, did you Mirandize them when you found them on the battlefield,’ “ he said. “With all due respect, I don’t happen to remember that in World War II, that when we captured Nazis and Japanese and took them to camps, that the first thing we did was provide them legal aid.”
-Washington Post

aNONOMISLY on October 22, 2006 at 01:13 pm
Avatar for muniz

I guess here’s what I don’t get:

When the argument suits us, we will equate the people we are fighting with classic war enemies from the past, such as “captured Nazis and Japanese,” but at the same time, when we are discussing the very same issue, we will stop at nothing to stress that our current enemies are nothing like those of the past.  These people are not uniformed armies or militia, there is no arguing that.  So to compare them to captured Nazis and Japanese is virtually ludicris.  But to go further and say that we did not offer those captured Nazis and Japanese legal aid is also a stretch.  We did not need to offer them legal aid, the system was already in place.  It was automatic, as afforded in the Geneva Conventions.  The legal treatment of them had already been decided. 

What we have done, with the issue at hand, is to ensure that there is absolutely no system in place, no legal protections whatsoever. 

You need to have the ability to try these people…

Agreed.  I don’t believe anybody is contesting the fact that suspected terrorists and villians need to be judged.  The key word there is suspected, and any man, regardless of citizenship, should have some basic rights.

muniz on October 22, 2006 at 01:30 pm
Avatar for WOOF

Has someone in the B administration
said US troops will leave Iraq?

Stand down yes, leave, no.

WOOF on October 22, 2006 at 03:16 pm

I think the idea of asking the Iraqis to set some milestones is a good one. I agree that a specific timetable is a ridiculous idea.


"There are different kinds of truths for different kinds of people. There are truths appropriate for children; truths that are appropriate for students; truths that are appropriate for educated adults; and truths that are appropriate for highly educated adults, and the notion that there should be one set of truths available to everyone is a modern democratic fallacy. It doesn’t work.”

Irving Kristol

MikeAdamson on October 22, 2006 at 06:51 pm

MikeA: The President has said many times that as the Iraqis stand up, we will stand down.  Besides, the faster the Iraqis can stand up, the sooner we can free the Iranian people.


"Give the lefties a pile of money, and they’ll spend it buying votes.” - Rush Limbaugh on the “bailout”.

robert108 on October 22, 2006 at 07:07 pm
Avatar for HG

I would love to see a timetable that limits our compassionate effort in this war to another, say 6 months, and then we take the gloves off.  Remember, US national security is our highest priority in any war, or at least it should be.

HG on October 22, 2006 at 07:12 pm

Besides, the faster the Iraqis can stand up, the sooner we can free the Iranian people.

You’re feeling frisky tonight aren’t you? Why not save the people in Senegal instead...they really do need help.


"There are different kinds of truths for different kinds of people. There are truths appropriate for children; truths that are appropriate for students; truths that are appropriate for educated adults; and truths that are appropriate for highly educated adults, and the notion that there should be one set of truths available to everyone is a modern democratic fallacy. It doesn’t work.”

Irving Kristol

MikeAdamson on October 22, 2006 at 07:19 pm

Maybe after Iran.  We have to prioritize, don’t you know?  I’m not being “frisky”; I’m being truthful.


"Give the lefties a pile of money, and they’ll spend it buying votes.” - Rush Limbaugh on the “bailout”.

robert108 on October 22, 2006 at 07:23 pm
Avatar for Anarchist Vegan: The Final Insult

Besides, the faster the Iraqis can stand up, the sooner we can free the Iranian people [from life?].--Robert108

Silly Robert108. Remember Vietnam? That one was lost to a bunch of ass-backwards peasants.

Iran may be too difficult to win before public support wanes. Iran has a rugged terrain, a large army, starting to get some decent tech (including advanced anti-tank and anti-ship missiles), and has a population hostile to a US invasion.

If you are really looking for another war, get your Republican buddies to look for the poorest flattest desert-nation, call it a sponsor of terrorism, and bomb it into oblivion. Invasion and occupation are hard, so make sure everyone is killed from the air or starved by sanctions. Easy fights get votes you know.

Or failing that, seek a cure for your bloodlust.

Avatar for gregdn

Robert:
“as the Iraqis stand up, we will stand down.”

Seems like lately, when an Iraqi stands up it’s to take a shot at our boys.

gregdn on October 23, 2006 at 03:00 am
Avatar for aNONOMISLY

..and hence, “we will stand down” ..i.e. duck for cover

aNONOMISLY on October 23, 2006 at 10:15 am

Anarchist Vegan: The Final Insult said, Silly Robert108. Remember Vietnam? That one was lost to a bunch of ass-backwards peasants.

It was only “lost” because we left before the job was finished.

If you are really looking for another war, get your Republican buddies to look for the poorest flattest desert-nation, call it a sponsor of terrorism, and bomb it into oblivion.

You’re setting up your own reality to knock down here. We’re not looking for another war. We’re just recognizing our enemies.

Or failing that, seek a cure for your bloodlust.

What a stupid thing to say.

likwidshoe on October 23, 2006 at 10:28 am
Avatar for muniz

You know, Veg, you don’t deserve to live in this country.

Doc,
I don’t know if he just got under your skin or what.  The supposed reason for every soldier over there willing to die, and the ones who do, in fact, die, is that they are doing it for the right of every American man, woman, and child to believe what they want.  To tell someone that they don’t deserve to live in this country when so many people have fought for those rights is just shocking. 

Doc, I respect you and often find your comments thoughtful, but this one was below the belt.

muniz on October 23, 2006 at 11:06 am

The supposed reason for every soldier over there willing to die, and the ones who do, in fact, die, is that they are doing it for the right of every American man, woman, and child to believe what they want.  To tell someone that they don’t deserve to live in this country when so many people have fought for those rights is just shocking.

What is shocking about telling someone that they don’t deserve to live in this country? Anarchist Vegan: The Final Insult goes on about his pacifism, all the while ignorant to the realization that he is only allowed to be a weak-bellied hypocrite because there are men out there willing to do damage and killing on his behalf. The ridiculous vegan is lucky to live in such a country and, truth be told, doesn’t deserve to.

likwidshoe on October 23, 2006 at 03:51 pm

I wonder whose side he would have fough for in the Revolutionary War?


Communism is evil

Chief RZ on October 23, 2006 at 04:00 pm
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Why not save the people in Senegal instead...they really do need help.

Why, are they poised on the verge of going nuclear?


When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty.

-- Thomas Jefferson

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Rob on October 23, 2006 at 04:02 pm

muniz...you might take some comfort in knowing that there’s a liberal forum somewhere that believes some folks here don’t deserve to live in America.

Rob...not to my knowledge although Senegal is turning into a seething cauldron of jihadist madness just itching to invade docdave’s house and proclaim sharia. After all, it’s not just about the WMD you know. wink


"There are different kinds of truths for different kinds of people. There are truths appropriate for children; truths that are appropriate for students; truths that are appropriate for educated adults; and truths that are appropriate for highly educated adults, and the notion that there should be one set of truths available to everyone is a modern democratic fallacy. It doesn’t work.”

Irving Kristol

MikeAdamson on October 23, 2006 at 05:43 pm
Avatar for Anarchist Vegan: The Final Insult

Awhile back I knew a Muslim girl who was over here studying. She happily adapted to our lifestyle: had a few drinks her friends, prayed only when she wanted to, didn’t bother with the whole head scarf thing, chose her own boyfriend…

Anyway, when she finished at uni, she had to go back to Indonesia. Back to praying five times a day, wearing a head scarf, no drinking, parents deciding her future husband (decided before she even got here). If she told her parents what she was upto here, she would have been disowned (at best).

So finally, my point is, the radical Muslims are having a hard enough time keeping their own people subjugated. We should be helping all those seeking progress in their own countries whatever non-violent help we can offer. Invasions just kill and piss people off.

I wonder whose side he would have fough for in the Revolutionary War?--Chief RZ

I wouldn’t have fought. Ever heard of a guy called Mahatma Gandhi? He led a non-violent movement that defeated the British. And I aint a pacficist, I am an activist. Non-violence is a great strategy as it alienates far fewer people.

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Non-violence...that’s a joke right?

While you’re meditating they’ll be cutting your head off.


When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty.

-- Thomas Jefferson

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Rob on October 23, 2006 at 07:04 pm
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Firstly, the basic goal of non-violence is to not do it by yourself. Even if you could single handidly overthrow a regime, it wouldn’t be democratic.

Unfortunately, people wouldn’t seek power if they didn’t like it, so they will try to kill a few to put off the rest. If you can get the majority of the population to protest, it becomes too difficult to massacre them all.

Non-violence even extends as far as putting your own body on the line to protect even the soldiers and police of the regime you seek to overthrow from the violent activists. This quickly gets many of the henchmen of the tyrant/oligarchy onside. If critical mass is reached, it’s too late and the tyrant/oligarchy have lost. Worked against the British in India, brilliant huh? (This may not work in cases of genocide, like Rawanda or Nazi Germany, only when the repressed are also the majority.)

Like some guy once said: Knowledge is power, guard it well.
So anything that helps these oppressed to educate and communicate with eachother to organise a revolution would be a good step in the fight against fundamentalism.

Rob
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So...you’re saying we should all just be peaceful and let the jihadists slaughter us until they’re tired from it.

That’s quite the cunning plan.

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When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty.

-- Thomas Jefferson

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Rob on October 23, 2006 at 07:38 pm

That’s quite the cunning plan.

They used that joke on “House” the other day.

("House," of course, starring Hugh Laurie, who starred in “Blackadder.”

Dave_Comet on October 23, 2006 at 07:41 pm
Avatar for Anarchist Vegan: The Final Insult

So...you’re saying we should all just be peaceful and let the jihadists slaughter us until they’re tired from it.
--Rob

Nearly right, if they ever achieve office here, then yes. I think we should use our cops to keep ‘em out personally. Non-violence is to overthrow the rulers in your own country.

Iran, for example, has a large progressive movement that doesn’t much like their mullahs over-riding the laws passed by their progressive governments. A non-violent revolution may work in Iran for example.

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Use our cops to keep ‘em out...are you referring to our soldiers?

Which means you support the war in Iraq?

Though, pending explanation of this point, I think your non-violence stuff is madness.


When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty.

-- Thomas Jefferson

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Rob on October 23, 2006 at 07:59 pm

It’s not that complicated; you depose Mahmoud, and maybe the worst of the mullahs, and let the people determine things for themselves.  In Iran, that is.  Unlike Iraq, there won’t be a terrorist dictator in the neighboring country fomenting violence to destabilize the govt; should work out fine.  We also take out the nukes, of course, while we are about it.


"Give the lefties a pile of money, and they’ll spend it buying votes.” - Rush Limbaugh on the “bailout”.

robert108 on October 23, 2006 at 08:20 pm

He led a non-violent movement that defeated the British.

(referring to Mahatma Ghandhi)

A popular myth.  Time was running out on British colonialism, and the British simply gave up.  Ghandhi himself admitted that his tactics wouldn’t have worked on anyone but the British.  He lucked out.


"Give the lefties a pile of money, and they’ll spend it buying votes.” - Rush Limbaugh on the “bailout”.

robert108 on October 23, 2006 at 08:29 pm
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Rob: A country defending itself within its borders is one thing, invading sovreign nations amd installing a puppet government is very naughty (imperialism).

Robert108: The British gave up because it was an un-winnable fight. That is the point of civil disobedience. When the Indians began the civil-disobedience (ignoring curfews, peaceful protests etc.), the British responded the only way they knew how, they used guns ande even committed some massacres.

Shooting peaceful unarmed protestors pretty much killed support at home and abroad. Unfortunately a few thousand died, and many more were imprisoned, but what would have been the cost of a military fight against a strong, well-trained and equipped foe? The non-violent activists condemned the Indians who resorted to violence and even put themselves in the line of fire to diffuse confrontations.

The key point of non-violence is that everyone, including old ladies and children, can participate. This has an extremely valuable propaganda contribution. Violent movements tends to alienate much of the population.

Even if maiming and killing is your thing, non-violence may be a useful strategy to keep as a backup (though would work best if used first). It is not just for girls’ blouse wearing mama’s boys, it is an effective strategy. If I were the Bushie, I would seriously be figuring out the best way to support the non-violent and progressive movements in Iran. If this could be made to work, it would be cheaper, and cost less lives.

Remember that Iran established a representative democracy in 1953 (until overthrown by a CIA backed coup), and tried again in 1979, but Khomeini ruined that, so the people do have the will. Maybe it wouldn’t work so good in North Korea because the state may be better prepared to prevent large scale movements, but anything’s possible.

Also Robert108, how are you planning on taking out Mahmoud without killing civilians? Remember that when Islamic fundamentalist terrorists committed the 9/11 atrocities, hundreds of millions of people were upset and angry. Even more so than the Oklahoma City bombing. Maybe because many fear the Islamic fundamentalist movements? So maybe bombing the carp out of Iran by percieved (rightly in many cases) Islam hating Christian imperialists (that’s what some call us, honest) will not win the populace over? They may fight against a percieved threat.

AV: 

The British gave up because it was an un-winnable fight.

You’re wrong.  Even Ghandhi disagrees with you.  They could have killed him at any time, even in South Africa, but they were too civilized to do so, and they lost India.


"Give the lefties a pile of money, and they’ll spend it buying votes.” - Rush Limbaugh on the “bailout”.

robert108 on October 24, 2006 at 06:12 am
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