AP Poll: Obama 44%, McCain 43%

• October 23, 2008

Wow…

WASHINGTON (AP) – The presidential race tightened after the final debate, with John McCain gaining among whites and people earning less than $50,000, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that shows McCain and Barack Obama essentially running even among likely voters in the election homestretch.
The poll, which found Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent, supports what some Republicans and Democrats privately have said in recent days: that the race narrowed after the third debate as GOP-leaning voters drifted home to their party and McCain’s “Joe the plumber” analogy struck a chord.

Has there ever been a Presidential race where the polls were this scattered? This poll has the race essentially tied. A Fox News poll has Obama up 9. Rasmussen has Obama up 6. Zogby has Obama up 10. Gallup has Obama up 5.
At this point, I think the only conclusion we can draw is “it’s close.” Other than that, polling seems worthless.

Tags: Politics

http://Array Jackass Jimmy

This disparity shows me that believing in the polls is a really dumb idea to begin with. That they’re tightening as of late tells me that the polls are worried about their reputations as Election Day draws near, that they’re using different methods to hide their dEMOcrat bias, and that this race is either a whole lot closer than they’ve been trying to broadcast or Obama’s actually behind in reality.
Bill Mitchell

GWU/Battleground has it O+2.
carrick

Well if McCain were to have a shot, the polls need to be tightening, not getting wider. Recent movement has been decidedly against McCain .

Obviously the only poll that counts is the election day one, but I think McCain and his handlers has bungled himself into a distant second-place position. Yes I’m thinking of way they have misused Palin in this election. And no I’m not worrying about how she did, 14 million Americans tuned in to see her on SNL for a reason… the prevarications of the retard kindergardeners on this blog not withstanding.
http://manoffireandlight.blog.co.uk/ ManofFireandLight

You could find yourself in for some criticism over the coming months for not doing just that, though you have gained some kudos here for stalwartly sticking to your guns. Integrity is hard to come by these days.
http://drslogan.wordpress.com/ Dr. Slogan

Could it be that voters have been paying more attention to Obama’s connections and actions than the media? The Odinga connection alone would cost Obama 10 points if it got properly exposed by media:

http://drslogan.wordpress.com/2008/10/22/kenya-barack-obamas-other-change/
Hannitized

It’s going to be interesting to see what happens on election day. I wonder if the “real Americans” will be voting?
carrick

The trend isn’t in the right direction for McCain. I think he is in the “no hope” territory at this point.
http://manoffireandlight.blog.co.uk/ ManofFireandLight

Still planning to not vote, Rob?
pparets

With very little fanfare, a number of pollsters ‘changed’ their methodology for this election year, by parsing their sampling systems. As a result, randomness has taken a hit in favor of pre-identifying party affiliation before polling.

In the new system, polling samples are more heavily based on a State’s, district’s or region’s registration percentages. Thus, if 54% of those polled are democrats, 38% are republicans, and 8% are independents, the outcome is nothing less than assured and predictable.

Note the wide disparity between professional polls and open, random polling as done on AOL and Drudge. For those who would argue that one could – with some effort – vote multiple times on AOL or Drudge and thereby skew the results, the law of averages must also be applied. More registered democrats nation-wide would mean more ‘cheating’ in favor of their candidiate… but the open/random polls have been hugely lopsided toward McCain.

Was this new system put in place to favor one candidate over another? Possibly. Major neworks and newspapers pay for these samples, and money talks. However, it would take intense investigative study to determine that.

BTW – Rob, you need to get off your principled high-horse and VOTE! The federal bench is at stake, folks!
pparets

Kenny: Like I said, “The facts are another.”

Although strongly criticized by both Democratic and Republican partisans at the time, the compromise was successful in precluding further judicial filibusters or the use of the nuclear option during the rest of the 109th Congress. As noted before, the Gang of 14 deal was instrumental in permitting Supreme Court nominee Samuel Alito an up-or-down vote, as his vote for confirmation (58 for to 42 against) would not have been adequate to overcome a party-line filibuster (i.e. did not equal or exceed 60 votes).
pparets

Kenny: You are 100% wrong!

McCain will continue the proud tradition of appointing liberals to the bench. It’s a bad argument, and one that won’t sway….well anyone who’s paid attention.

Anyone in their right mind knows that John McCain will not nominate the kind of liberal/legislate-from-the-bench judges and justices that Barack Obama would.

Your venom is one thing… the facts are another.
http://insanereindeer.blogspot.com/ Kenny

Your venom is one thing… the facts are another.

There’s no venom. Just a quiet acceptance of the facts.

If you expect McCain, who griped that the relatively moderate Alito was too conservative, and joined the Gang of 14 to block Republican nominees, to appoint conservatives…you’re dreaming.

Just because I’m voting for him doesn’t mean I am deluded about who he is.
http://insanereindeer.blogspot.com/ Kenny

Well if McCain were to have a shot, the polls need to be tightening, not getting wider. Recent movement has been decidedly against McCain .

Since no one’s opinion in these polls has actually changed, let’s stop pretending the polls matter.

BTW – Rob, you need to get off your principled high-horse and VOTE! The federal bench is at stake, folks!

Only two of our current bench were appointed by Dems. McCain will continue the proud tradition of appointing liberals to the bench. It’s a bad argument, and one that won’t sway….well anyone who’s paid attention.
Mickey

The Polls are all over the road but they will tighten up their ranks closer to the final few days. They have to otherwise they lose credibility if McCain wins. You are seeing it happen already with this AP poll. I remember that Kerry was ahead at this time four years ago as well.
http://sayanythingblog.com robport

You could well be right, Carrick. I’m not necessarily disagreeing with you.

At this point, I’m throwing up my hands in trying to call this horserace.
http://sayanythingblog.com robport

Yeah, personally I’m not voting.

I’m sick of voting for the less-bad candidate.
http://sayanythingblog.com robport

I want to be inspired into voting for someone, not guilted into grudgingly casting a ballot against someone like Obama.
http://sayanythingblog.com robport

I dunno, Carrick. I felt the way you did about two weeks ago, but right now?

It’s up in the air I think.

But there’s a reason we actually hold the elections.
http://sayanythingblog.com robport

You could find yourself in for some criticism over the coming months for not doing just that, though you have gained some kudos here for stalwartly sticking to your guns. Integrity is hard to come by these days.

Thanks. Admittedly, it isn’t an easy position to take.

SayAnythingBlog.com

AP Poll: Obama 44%, McCain 43%

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