An Argument For Destabilization

Wizbang’s Mr. Tea:

One of the sillier accusations against President Bush’s policies and actions regarding the Middle East has been that they have been “destabilizing” matters.
To which I respond with a hearty “well, duh.”
“Stability” is the watchword of many people. They don’t want matters upset. They think the situation may be bad, but it could be worse, and they think that the status quo is at least tolerable.
I reject that argument.
Let’s look at what is considered the “stable” situation these people want to preserve:
The entire Muslim/Arab world ruled by dictators of various sorts — theocrats, autocrats, and out-and-out tyrants.
A steady, constant level of terrorist attacks and slaughter of civilians in Israel and around the world.
The world’s oil supply (the lifeblood of modern civilization) vulnerable to threats and disruptions.
Large portions of the revenues from said oil supply going to fund these terrorist attacks, while an even larger portion props up said dictators.
Yeah, President Bush has certainly destabilized that situation. I’d like to think (for the sake of my nation and the world) that he has a grand scheme going on, a vision of how he wants it to be coupled with a workable plan to reach it, but even if he simply decided to toss the whole thing into a blender and hit puree’, the odds are halfway decent that the end product will be better.

Read the whole thing. I’ve made similar points about stability in the middle east, but never quite as succinctly as above.
The people who make the argument that is rejected above are who I call the “peace at any cost” crowd. They believe that if we keep our military here at home, quit ruffling the feathers of dictators and tyrants around the globe and stop intimidating the rest of the world by maintaining the finest, best-equipped, most powerful military on earth there would be no more war.
These people are, quite frankly, out of their gourds. The stability of oppressive regimes is not something we should be worried about.
The only thing that keeps Americans safe from attack by our enemies is the fact that our enemies fear our retribution. In fact, as I pointed out in a recent column for a local publication here in North Dakota, nearly every instance where our country’s interests were attacked either abroad or domestically can be traced back to another instance where our country displayed weakness to our enemies.
Diplomacy is all well and good and should certainly be option #1 in our foreign policy, but some monsters in this world (and the majority of the people we are hostile with in the middle east are, make no doubt about it, monsters) will only understand force. The only thing that will deter them from attacking us is either a) us attacking them first or b) their consideration of what our retribution will be after their attack.
I’m reminded of something Condoleezza Rice said over a year ago:

…for 60 years, my county, the United States, pursued stability at the expense of democracy in this region [the middle east] . . . and we achieved neither. Now, we are taking a different course. We are supporting the democratic aspirations of all people.

That statement should be the cornerstone, the bedrock foundation, of America’s foreign policy. No quarter for tyrants or terrorists. If that means making waves, so be it. In the long run both our interests, and the interests of the world, will be better served.

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  • http://Array robert108

    “Here it is: gas prices go up: transportation of good goes up, manufacturing varieble goes up, i.e. cost making good and getting it to consumer go up in general, prices go up, INFLTATION!”

    Increasing prices due to an increase of value is not inflation. Right now, oil, and everything related to it, is increasing in value. That is what happens when supply can’t meet demand, for any reason. Part of it is the crisis in the ME, part of it is restrictive environmental policies over the last thirty years or so, but whatever the reason, we have decided that oil is more valuable than it used to be. We can decide otherwise, but we have to make that decision and act on it to change the upward trend of oil prices. Still, it’s not inflation; it’s a societal decision to make oil-related things more valuable. Inflation is when prices go up without an increase in value.

    “as happen during the great depression?”

    Do you know what happened during the Great Depression? Assets didn’t “evaporate”. Due to the inflated value of the stock market caused by 90% margin and the flawed expectation from amateur investors that they would get rich quick, when the market returned to normal value, the emotional impact on the citizenry of those transfers(not losses) to the wise investors, plus a President who made his political career by devaluing the free enterprise system caused a real drop in demand. That, coupled with a very severe deflation caused another transfer of assets from the many to the few. The socialist policies of the New Deal kept capital from being spread into the private sector(as govt policy), thus delaying the recovery until after WWII, when the joy of winning the war returned demand to its rightful level. The rest is history. Nothing going on today even remotely resembles the Great Depression.

  • http://www.dartemis.net/users/r_g_graves/ sayanything-42

    MikeAdamson opines:

    I do know people such as Rob describes although thankfully they constitute a tiny minority.

    Isolationism is a fairly constant theme in American History. Sadly, in a world where passengers can and do cross the oceans in hours instead of weeks, and of even faster weapons, such a policy is no longer viable. Our oceans are no longer our buffer, and our first line of defense must thus be not our shores, nor our oceans, but at or near the source of the threat.

    Most people who argue against Mr. Tea’s viewpoint prefer to see action directed at key problems rather than old ideological causes and try to weigh the possible consequences of such action rather than assuming outcomes based on unrealistic perceptions of the world…recognising of course that we don’t have a common view of what constitutes reality.

    Or they prefer the comfortable inaction of never to be obtained universal consensus.

    Honor the threat.

    Out Here
    Rodney Graves
    rodney.g.graves@gmail.com

  • http://www.kenmccracken.blogspot.com/ Ken McCracken

    Graveyards are ‘stable’ also.

  • MikeAdamson

    The people who make the argument that is rejected above are who I call the “peace at any cost” crowd. They believe that if we keep our military here at home, quit ruffling the feathers of dictators and tyrants around the globe and stop intimidating the rest of the world by maintaining the finest, best-equipped, most powerful military on earth there would be no more war.

    I do know people such as Rob describes although thankfully they constitute a tiny minority. Most people who argue against Mr. Tea’s viewpoint prefer to see action directed at key problems rather than old ideological causes and try to weigh the possible consequences of such action rather than assuming outcomes based on unrealistic perceptions of the world…recognising of course that we don’t have a common view of what constitutes reality.

  • aNONOMISLY

    yeah, let’s liberate the Saudis next, :-)

  • aNONOMISLY

    Those that can are leaving the country. At Baghdad airport, throngs of Iraqis jostle for places on the flights out — testimony to the breakdown in Iraqi society.

    A neurologist, who was heading to Jordan with his wife, said that he would seek work abroad and hoped that he would never have to return. “We were so happy on April 9, 2003 when the Americans came. But I’ve given up. Iraq isn’t ready for democracy,” he said, sitting in a chair with a view of the airport runway.

    Fares al-Mufti, an official with the Iraqi Airways booking office, told The Times that the national carrier had had to lay on an extra flight a day, all fully booked. Flights to Damascus have gone up from three a week to eight to cope with the panicked exodus.

    Muhammad al-Ani, who runs fleets of Suburban cars to Jordan, said that the service to Amman was so oversubscribed that that prices had rocketed from $200 (£108) to $750 per trip in the past two weeks.
    Despite the huge risks of driving through the Sunni Triangle, the number of buses to Jordan has mushroomed from 2 a day to as many as 40 or 50.

    In one of the few comprehensive surveys of how many Iraqis have fled their country since the US invasion, the US Committee for Refugees and Immigrants said last month that there were 644,500 refugees in Syria and Jordan in 2005 — about 2.5 per cent of Iraq’s population. In total, 889,000 Iraqis had moved abroad, creating “the biggest new flow of refugees in the world”, according to Lavinia Limon, the committee’s president.

    And the exodus may only just be starting.

  • aNONOMISLY

    ..rising oil prices means our CPI will go up by more than previously expected, making it more likely for the FEDs to continue rising our interest rate,which also means our cost of borrowing will probably increase.
    Our economy suffers, we suffer and Dictators in the Middle East and else where PROFIT.

    This is bad for Americans,

    As Oil Hits New High, Businesses Continue to Struggle
    Friday, July 14, 2006

    Amid escalating violence in the Middle East, renewed tensions with North Korea and Iran, and continued hurricane fears, U.S. fuel prices have reached a season high of $2.96 a gallon — forcing businesses to charge customers more,

    For many business owners, simply absorbing the added costs is no longer an option. Brendan Phillips, CEO of Smart Carpet located in Manasquan, N.J., said that he’s had no choice but to raise his own prices.

    Over the past two years, Smart Carpet has passed an increase of 20 percent to 30 percent on to customers. “High prices are driving lower-income [customers] out of the market,” Phillips said.

    John Eagleton, CEO of Northstar Aerospace, a Duluth, Minn., manufacturer of small plane parts, hasn’t raised prices yet, but is mulling the option. A couple of years ago, fuel surcharges used to make up 2 percent to 4 percent of his vendors’ invoices — today that number is as high as 24 percent.

    “I just can’t keep paying the escalating fuel surcharges without passing that on to our customers,” Eagleton said

    (source: FoxNews)

    And Dictator in the Middle East are taking in the windfall profits of our pain.

    Washingtonpost.com,

    An escalation of Middle East fighting and crude oil prices close to $80 a barrel will create more angst on Wall Street this week, ..

    We need to stops subsidizing dictator in the Middle East. Our pain at the pump and elsewhere is Irans profit. I really think we need a project of similar size urgengy and scope as the Manhattan project to make ourself energy independent fron those most wanting to cause us harm

  • robert108

    MikeA: “Most people who argue against Mr. Tea’s viewpoint prefer to see action directed at key problems…”

    “Most people?” Some stats on that, please. Nonetheless, it then depends on what you define as “key problems”. I regard worldwide Islamic terrorism as a “key problem”. Those that don’t are probably part of the overall problem, as defined by Mr Tea.

  • robert108

    MikeA: I will reluctantly agree that my country is a major part of today’s huge problem with terrorism, but not the current President, who is finally getting it right. Starting with Munich in 1972, the US has consistently either ignored or soft-pedaled the problem of Islamic terrorism, which has emboldened them to do what they are presently doing. This behavior has been consistent through all administrations, highlighted by Reagan not responding in kind to Beirut, Carter hiding under the bed while a bunch of pissants took our people hostage, Clinton cutting and running in Somalia and ignoring the Trade Tower bombing in 1993.
    Now, we finally have a guy in the Highest Office who responds to these illegal and immoral terrorists, and all you can do is snipe at him in the interest of short-term political gain. You guys are the best allies the terrorists could hope for in our society.

  • aNONOMISLY

    We’ve done such a great job at liberating Iraq, that now all of those with money and some professional skill are putting their new found liberties to good use.

    Iraq’s mass exodus: Those Iraqi that can are leaving

    side effect: a brain drain

  • robert108

    MikeA: You write: “There will always be conflict in the world…” And you describe me as “glum”? I hope you were being facetious there. I guess I’m one of those who believe that evil can be defeated, and if we’re willing to do what it takes to defeat evil, we get some peace. At any rate, IMO it’s better than living in slavery to socialist or monarchist dictatorship.

  • aNONOMISLY

    Scorecard on the most recent Mideast destabilization (Israel-Lebanon)

    Iran: +1 (oil prices are breaking new records! i.e. more revenue for the Mullahs)

    United States: -2 (oil prices are breaking new records! i.e. higher prices at the pumb, everything costs more to make and transport, cost go up, prices go up, inflation goes up; ..Our stock market is showing a precipitous decline i.e. a 400 point drop in ~3 days, billions of “assets” owned by Americans have just evaporated.)

    let round two begin!

  • aNONOMISLY

    Not to dash your hopes, but when oil goes up in perceived value, the increase in gas prices is not inflation.

    I was NOT referring to the rise of oil prices as derectly causing inflation. Here it is: gas prices go up: transportation of good goes up, manufacturing varieble goes up, i.e. cost making good and getting it to consumer go up in general, prices go up, INFLTATION!

    Assets don’t “evaporate”, they move from one area of the economy to another

    as happened during the Great Depression?

  • aNONOMISLY

    The Times is no NYT,

    ABOUT the Times, which is owned by News Corp (i.e. Ruper Murdoch, the guy that owns Fox News here in the US)

  • aNONOMISLY

    Not to dash your hopes, but when oil goes up in perceived value, the increase in gas prices is not inflation.

    I was NOT referring to the rise of oil prices as derectly causing inflation. Here it is: gas prices go up: transportation of good goes up, manufacturing varieble goes up, i.e. cost making good and getting it to consumer go up in general, prices go up, INFLTATION!

    Assets don’t “evaporate”, they move from one area of the economy to another

    as happen during the great depression?

  • http://igotthisblog.blogspot.com/ Seth Williams

    Mike: what “old ideological causes” do you think action is presently being directed at, in lieu of attention being paid to “key problems”?

  • robert108

    aNON: Not to dash your hopes, but when oil goes up in perceived value, the increase in gas prices is not inflation. Assets don’t “evaporate”, they move from one area of the economy to another.

  • aNONOMISLY

    let’s liberate the Saudis next, :-)

  • MikeAdamson

    They want Bill Clinton-style foreign policy. Quick action. A minimal amount of troops on the ground. Fire a few missiles from a thousand or so miles away and then call it good. It doesn’t have to really solve the problem, just make it go away for a while so they can return to their bellyaching for tax-funded health care (something Mike already has in Canada) and their favorite television shows.

    Like the invasion of Iraq I suppose. It didn’t address any of the crucial issues at the time but, by God, it was action. There’s more to foreign policy than military action as your military well knows…a pity that your Administration doesn’t seem to agree.

    Using Mike’s logic, we would try to solve the problem of ants in the kitchen by stepping on the individual ants rather than finding their source and exterminating it.

    Too nuanced for me…just start stomping and keep stomping and forget about root causes and other lefty talking points. ;)

  • robert108

    MikeA: I think it is an unpleasant reality for you that diplomacy is best used to set up a win in the eventual war. The terrorists have used our prediliction for diplomacy at all costs to build up their strength and resolve for over thirty years, and finally, military action is being taken. It’s not too soon, but hopefully it isn’t too late.

  • Bat One

    MikeA,

    I’m not especially in need of any consolation… at least not that I’m aware of. But I appreciate the thought nonetheless.

    Obviously I disagree with your characterization of Mr. Bush’s foreign policy as “adventurism” although I can certainly acknowledge a reasoned point of view such as yours. To my mind, the jury is still out on Iraq, though I believe it was the correct call.

    What does concern me, however, is that those who are so quick to criticize Bush’s policy, are unable to offer any viable alternatives of their own. Can a nuclear-armed Iran be tolerated? IF so, why? If not, what to do about it, as the Mullahs are quite obviously not about to give up their nuclear ambitions?

    What about North Korea? Are its nuclear weapons and ICBM capabilities to be ignored (and undoubtedly allowed to spread), or dealt with? How else is this to be accomplished?

    Is the UN worth saving? Why? Or better yet, what parts of the organization’s global network isn’t compromised by incompetence or corruption of one sort or another?

    Criticism, as you well know, without substantive, workable policy alternatives, is merely mindless blather. Where’s the beef?

  • robert108

    dd: Right now, because of our policy of letting the environmental ayatollahs dictate our domestic oil and gas supply policy, we have allowed ME dictators to control our supply. We are now reaping the consequences of this policy.
    My whole point in mentioning the relatively inelastic demand for gasoline is that it is only relative. In the mid seventies, when gas shot up from thirty cents a gallon to sixty-five cents a gallon almost overnight, driving fell drastically. I live north of Los Angeles, and remember going down there and finding the freeways almost empty. Everything is price-sensitive; we just aren’t in that range yet with gas in this country. Adjusted for inflation, gas is still cheap. What you really have here is the anti-President forces in the Dem Party and the MSM using gas prices as a propaganda tool. They are taking advantage of the economic ignorance of the general populace to make their short term political gains at the expense of the good of the country. Shame on them!

  • Bat One

    There’s more to foreign policy than military action as your military well knows…a pity that your Administration doesn’t seem to agree.

    MikeA,

    The very real problem of the Iranian Mullah’s nuclear ambitions has been thus far handled entirely by diplomacy… with the Europeans, whose nuanced diplomatic savoire faire we are supposed to regard as the gold standard of international behavior, taking the lead role.

    The planet’s other major flashpoint, North Korea (amazing how prescient Mr. Bush’s “Axis of Evil” description looks in hindsight) has also been handled strictly via diplomacy, and with the careful and fairly successful involvement of the Chinese, the Russians, and the Japanese as well.

    Libya, which no one knew to be harboring a sophisticated nuclear weapons program, has been subtly convinced to give it up. And last year’s long-term agreement with India was a major coup in itself.

    Finally, despite the frantic carping and braying of the left, Ambassador Bolton appears to have done a fairly credible job of keeping the United Nations from willfully flushing itself further down the sewer of irrelevancy… no small task that.

    There will always be those, especially on the left, whose pacific delusions and objection to anyone more martial than a meter maid, keeps them from acknowledging that negotiations mean nothing unless BOTH parties are serious, and that threats are pointless, and in fact all the more dangerous, unless one is fully willing to carry them out.

    Your flippant critique of the Bush administration’s diplomatic efforts has a hollow ring to it. The anti-Bush meme may have lost its most strident voice with Diane’s departure, but there’s really no reason for you to feel compelled to pick up the slack in her absence.

  • aNONOMISLY

    rob, you’re misunderstimating what I’m saying

    Increasing prices due to an increase of value is not inflation. Right now, oil, and everything related to it, is increasing in value. That is what happens when supply can’t meet demand, for any reason. Part of it is the crisis in the ME, part of it is restrictive environmental policies over the last thirty years or so, but whatever the reason, we have decided that oil is more valuable than it used to be. We can decide otherwise, but we have to make that decision and act on it to change the upward trend of oil prices. Still, it’s not inflation; it’s a societal decision to make oil-related things more valuable. Inflation is when prices go up without an increase in value.

    Record high and climing oil prices is bad for our economy. It means we have to pay more at the gas pump it means the cost of making good increases. It means the price of many good goes up. It means our Cost of Living increases.

    Record high and climing oil prices is a very good catalyst for inflation. Americans are adversily effected by record high oil prices. The Iranian mullahs profit from record high oil prices, ..in the form of increasing oil revenues.

    Do you know what happened during the Great Depression? Assets didn’t “evaporate”. Due to the inflated value of the stock market caused by 90% margin and the flawed expectation from amateur investors that they would get rich quick, when the market returned to normal value, the emotional impact on the citizenry of those transfers(not losses) to the wise investors, plus a President who made his political career by devaluing the free enterprise system caused a real drop in demand. That, coupled with a very severe deflation caused another transfer of assets from the many to the few. The socialist policies of the New Deal kept capital from being spread into the private sector(as govt policy), thus delaying the recovery until after WWII, when the joy of winning the war returned demand to its rightful level. The rest is history. Nothing going on today even remotely resembles the Great Depression.

    I’m sure those that lived through the Great Depression would agree with you in that it was only a matter of waiting it out.

    A falling stock market means our economy is not growing as much as it would otherwise, which is bad for our economy. ..bad for Americans.

  • robert108

    dd: You are partly right, but the devil is in the details. Gasoline is relatively inelastic on the demand side, because there are no cost-effective substitutes. However, if gas goes high enough, two things will happen: Other means of transportation will be increasingly used, and people will find ways to drive less. If gas stays too high long term, other fuels will come online, and people will shift where they live, to be closer to where they work. It’s all about value. Gas is valuable to us, because we use it to make money and enjoy life. The price of gasoline has never been controlled by “free market economics”. It is controlled, in a free market system, by the relationship between supply and demand. Present day fears of interruption in supply are “fueling” the present high oil prices.

  • robert108

    aNON: “An escalation of Middle East fighting and crude oil prices close to $80 a barrel will create more angst on Wall Street this week, .”

    Notice the propaganda: Oil isn’t at $80 a barrel yet, but they are pimping that number, as if it is some magic quantity. In your alarmism about ME dictators feeding off our appetite for oil, don’t forget to thank the environmental lobby for the present situation. With their socialist restriction of domestic supply of both oil and refineries for the last thirty years, they are responsible, and should get the praise.

  • WOOF

    All the Democracy has been turned against us.

    Some plan.

  • aNONOMISLY

    All you point out is great, sure it is our choise to buy gas, sure we buy gas because we can do valuable things with it. But the facts still reamain:

    record high oil prices, climing oil prices are bot bad for our economy. …remember our previous oil crises?

    Dictators in the Middle East and in other place, ..dictators which we rather do without are gaining record high profit which help them stay in power and fund their agenda, (which includes funding groups that are hostile to our interests ..e.g. Chavez funding his “Bolivarian Revolution: Iran and Saudi Arabian princes funding Hezbullah and other terrorist groups.

  • robert108

    aNON: Like this “crisis”, the previous ones were about interruption of supply, usually by govt mismanagement, as is this one. Not taking the threat of ME terrorism seriously for over thirty years, while at the same time allowing our own supply to be manipulated for political reasons, has brought us to this point. When you know the cause of the problem, the solution generally becomes obvious: Increase our own supply by whatever means possible. Fortunately, in our system of private ownership of capital, this is easily done. We just have to get the politicians who worship short term outcome(the Dems) out of the way. That is the answer to all your fears.

    The price of any single thing is not “bad for our economy”. Your error is the static state analysis of your “fixed pie” thinking. When profits go up, so does the standard of living. Think about it. Only taxes are uncompensated expense, economically speaking.

  • MikeAdamson

    Bat One…I appreciate your comments. If it’s any consolation I don’t think that short sighted foreign policy began with the Bush Administration although I still stick to my belief that his adventurism has not improved the world situation.

    r108…your perpetual glumness is a real downer. There will always be conflict in the world and the democracies will always face enemies but we will muddle through like we always do so please cheer up.

    Good points about inflation earlier BTW. If aN had talked about the cost of living instead perhaps you would have been more receptive?

  • robert108

    aNON: “Record high and climing oil prices is bad for our economy. It means we have to pay more at the gas pump it means the cost of making good increases. It means the price of many good goes up. It means our Cost of Living increases.”

    We have the choice as to how we spend our money. In a free enterprise system, no one forces us to spend what we don’t choose to. If one commodity gets more expensive, we make other choices. As I explained above, we buy gas because we can do valuable things with it. As long as we get that value, we will continue to buy it. What really happens is that we shift our spending on other things, and they might have to become cheaper to remain competitive. “Fixed pie” thinking always leads to the wrong conclusion in an “expanding pie” economic system, like we have.

    “I’m sure those that lived through the Great Depression would agree with you in that it was only a matter of waiting it out.”

    Is that all you got out of what I wrote? I never said anything of the kind. FDR’s programs, while well-intentioned, made things worse, IMO. If you read the history of the period, he was always on the radio preaching the virtues of socialism and slamming the free enterprise system. That did a lot of harm, and some of his ideas are still believed by lefties today. Dynamic free enterprise action was called for, not “waiting it out”, but we got socialism instead.

  • http://sayanythingblog.com robport

    Most people who argue against Mr. Tea’s viewpoint prefer to see action directed at key problems rather than old ideological causes and try to weigh the possible consequences of such action rather than assuming outcomes based on unrealistic perceptions of the world

    Mike, speaking generally, if our enemies fear us the likelihood that they will risk attacking us is significantly lower.

    Now please point me to the flaw in that thinking.

    The problem with many in the western world is that we’ve grown fat (I’m speaking figuratively here rather than literally, though I suppose it’s true in a literal sense as well to some extent) and complacent in our comfortable homes and pleasant societies.

    People like Mike are quick to point out that they want to address international threats, but what they don’t want to do is see their country “get their hands dirty” by getting at the root that causes the threat.

    They want Bill Clinton-style foreign policy. Quick action. A minimal amount of troops on the ground. Fire a few missiles from a thousand or so miles away and then call it good. It doesn’t have to really solve the problem, just make it go away for a while so they can return to their bellyaching for tax-funded health care (something Mike already has in Canada) and their favorite television shows.

    As I pointed out, though, this sort of foreign policy is dangerous. It makes our enemies think that we are afraid of them, and it allows them to go strong in our absence of truly direct action. Clinton’s pull-out from Somalia more than likely brought 9/11 to our doorsteps. I’m not blaming Clinton for 9/11, just pointing out that his style of foreign policy makes us less safe.

    We do not keep our socieities safe by doing things half-assed. We do need to direct our action to “key problems,” but neither can we ignore the root causes of those problems. Using Mike’s logic, we would try to solve the problem of ants in the kitchen by stepping on the individual ants rather than finding their source and exterminating it.

  • http://sayanythingblog.com robport

    Like the invasion of Iraq I suppose. It didn’t address any of the crucial issues at the time but, by God, it was action.

    The crucial issues were addressed in Afghanistan. The invasion of Iraq was the opening of a larger front in the war on terror. Islamic terrorism springs from the oppression present in the middle east. The liberation of Afghanistan and Iraq has gone a long way toward rolling back that oppression and will continue to have positive ripple effects in the region for years to come (progress on voting rights in Kuwait, for example, and Lebanon’s resurgent spirit of independence from Syria).

    But clearly you don’t agree with that plan. Fine. What’s yours? Wait until we’re attacked, find out who did it and then get them?

    That seems sort of like buying car insurance after you have an accident.

  • http://sayanythingblog.com robport

    Anon, there’s more to the story about Iraqi’s leaving Iraq then meets the eye.

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