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Saturday, July 08, 2006

America’s Spectacular Economy

Via RealClearPolitics, we find Larry Kudlow making this extraordinary claim:
Did you know that just over the past 11 quarters, dating back to the June 2003 Bush tax cuts, America has increased the size of its entire economy by 20 percent? In less than three years, the U.S. economic pie has expanded by $2.2 trillion, an output add-on that is roughly the same size as the total Chinese economy, and much larger than the total economic size of nations like India, Mexico, Ireland, and Belgium.
The next time someone mentions how great the Chinese economy is doing, tell them that Bush creates that entire economy every three years! It is a staggering accomplishment.

Well, any day now we can expect the press to start gushing about how George W. Bush is one of the greatest presidents ever. After all, his economic achievments have been dwarfing those of Bill Clinton (4.6% unemployment right now, ahem), and the fleeting prosperity of the Clinton dot.com bubble years were reason alone to put Clinton in the pantheon of great or near-great presidents, right?

All the more so for GWB then.

Crossposted from WILLisms.com

Comments

Avatar for Rodney Graves

Ken,

When we reflect that Reagan was similarly villified by the Left (and their then wholly owned subsidiary the MSM) during his Presidency (and for some years afterwards), it does indeed look as if history will remember George W. Bush very kindly indeed.

Out Here
Rodney Graves

Rodney Graves on July 8, 2006 at 11:25 am

Well, considering that the left has been wrong about nearly everything since FDR was in office, being vilified by them is a sign you are doing good things.

Ken McCracken on July 8, 2006 at 11:40 am
Avatar for diane

Profit warnings, rising interest rates interest rates, record oil prices, large trade deficits, massive federal deficit all point to potential trouble for the economy.
*********

Stocks plunge as oil surges, companies warn

Updated: 4:34 p.m. MT July 7, 2006

NEW YORK - Corporate profit warnings and record oil prices overshadowed a benign jobs creation report and sent stocks sharply lower Friday, as investors worried that the U.S. economy is cooling too quickly.

The Labor Department reported just 121,000 new jobs in June, short of the 175,000 economists expected. With the unemployment rate steady at 4.6 percent, the report was exactly what Wall Street had hoped for — low unemployment, but modest job growth that won’t spark a sharp increase in consumer demand, which could foreshadow inflation and interest rate hikes.

However, with 3M Co. warning of lower-than-expected earnings, investors grew concerned that slower economic growth, while good for keeping rates steady, could cut into corporate profits. However, few other companies have warned the markets about falling profits, analysts noted.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3683270/

diane on July 8, 2006 at 12:26 pm
Avatar for Rodney Graves

Ken,

At least they serve as reliable contra-indicators.

Out Here
Rodney Graves

Rodney Graves on July 8, 2006 at 12:31 pm

Only problem I have with Ken’s article is that he is using GDP in nominal rather than real dollars.  In real dollars, the increase is closer to 11%.  That is still a very good number, IMHO.

And don’t you love articles like the NYTs linked by Diane?

It conflates forcing terms, like oil prices, with economic performance indicators like job creation, then fails to address the reason for the decrease in job creation (near full employment is not a sign the economy is tanking, unless you are a complete moron).

Carrick on July 9, 2006 at 08:46 am
Rob
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Carrick, exactly right on the unemployment figures.

4.6% is a rock-bottom low national unemployment rate.  It is not hard for me to believe that 4.6% of our population either a) doesn’t want to work (for various reasons) or b) are unemployable schmucks (addicts, crooks, etc.).

Job growth is slowing because, frankly, there aren’t that many people left to put to work.


When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty.

-- Thomas Jefferson

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Rob on July 9, 2006 at 08:51 am
Avatar for The Whistler

4.6% is a rock-bottom low national unemployment rate. It is not hard for me to believe that 4.6% of our population either a) doesn’t want to work (for various reasons) or b) are unemployable schmucks (addicts, crooks, etc.).

That and there are always some people transitioning between one job and another which contrary to leftest dribble is a good thing.  Generally you can’t expect to take a job and work at it your entire career.  In order to get ahead you have to take more responsibility and more demanding work.

Liberals base their economic plans on a person taking a job when they’re 18 and retiring on it.  Of course it’s not the fault of the worker when their family income doesn’t go up.

The Whistler on July 9, 2006 at 09:00 am
Avatar for chichi

another reason bush > clinton.

4.6% is a rock-bottom low national unemployment rate. It is not hard for me to believe that 4.6% of our population either a) doesn’t want to work (for various reasons) or b) are unemployable schmucks (addicts, crooks, etc.).

there are also lots of people who don’t NEED to work, and instead stay home with their kids or volunteer somewhere…

also, what about students? most students I know don’t work their freshman year… the ones that work generally babysit and don’t have to pay taxes for their work (or work a job like an internship where they’re not paid)… so they’re likely to be considered “unemployed”, even though they’re really not.

chichi on July 9, 2006 at 09:26 pm
Avatar for robert108

chichi: The unemployment numbers also include those who are in transition from one job to another, either by choice or by circumstance.  I think the lowest ever unemployment number was near the end of WWII, at 1.2%; probably unachievable in these times.

robert108 on July 9, 2006 at 10:14 pm
Avatar for diane

The numbers also don’t show those who have fallen off eligibility for unemployment.

But then, who cares about them?  They skew your results so let’s ignore that.

diane on July 9, 2006 at 10:18 pm
Avatar for The Whistler

The numbers also don’t show those who have fallen off eligibility for unemployment.

I don’t believe that’s the case.  I think the actual people that it doesn’t count are the people that are no longer looking. 

I guess if they aren’t looking then it’s their own fault.  There’s jobs out there, but perhaps not the perfect job.

The Whistler on July 10, 2006 at 04:28 am
Avatar for Nathan Ogger

It is always fine and okay if you are the one who isn’t being hit with the stick. 

Odd that the corporations have been doing well and yet others are near bankrupt.  Either way they will not hire recent science graduates unless they are the cream of the crop.  That means anyone with an average IQ and average ability can go work in the minimum wage service industry.  Unfortunately as soon as you show up for such a job and mention you have a degree in computer science they kind of go pale in the face and wonder why you are unemployed.  I mean after all the economy is going great and you have a very difficult degree to actually finish, shouldn’t you have a good job instead of a minimum wage one?

And after graduating in 2001 I have had my share of minimum wage jobs.  Yes, I know you are thinking that is all I am worth and it is all I should expect.  But understand this everyday I get a bit angrier, frustrated and see a huge amount of propaganda out of the administration.  I see the rich getting richer and lying about computer engineer positions.  And next time you hear the qualifier of wanting to hire “Qualified” people it means non-American graduate.

I believe they also recently revised the census on employment and have never touched underemployment in their census data.  And yes, temporary employees or your transitional, even those who work 1 day in a week for 1 hour a day count as employed.  Which is common or on the flip side jobs like fast food want people working up to 39.9999 hours to never hit 40 hours so they don’t have to pay benefits.  It’s fun being in low-end jobs as you get dumped on by customers and by your corporate leash holders.  You are a piece of garbage and treated like it. 

I know, you think everything is great and it is my problem.  Fine, but in time understand that my anger will make it your problem.  I will not live in abject poverty like I do and be trodden on much longer.  I had previously hoped to be a part of a community and be part of something special but there is no possibility for me anymore and hatred is almost all that remains.

But people like yourself will never listen until it’s you.  Personally I hope it is you sooner rather than latter because there is no compassion between us and never will be.  If I had my way I would kick every one of you in the face as hard as possible.  That is the anger I feel for you and your attitudes here.  After all I am the enemy and I have learned my lessens; you are and your like are now my enemy as well.

Peace.

Nathan Ogger on July 21, 2006 at 07:26 pm
Rob
Rob
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But people like yourself will never listen until it’s you.

Nathan, I’m sure plenty of readers here have worked their fair share of minimum wage jobs.  Most of us got through it without threatening to “get angry” and make it everyone else’s problem.

As for me, four years ago my wife left me.  I was massively in debt and working a job that wasn’t exactly minimum wage, but wasn’t exactly high wages either.

I had nothing.  I didn’t even have a bed.  When my current fiance met me I was sleeping on the floor of my living room with nothing but a sleeping bag and an alarm clock.

But I got through it, so don’t partonize me by telling me that I’ve never been through what you have.  I have.


When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty.

-- Thomas Jefferson

Rob’s recently listened-to songs:

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Rob on July 21, 2006 at 08:23 pm
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