A Tie With Rick Berg Was Not What Heidi Heitkamp Needed

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Written By:
Rob Port

Oct 9, 2012
10:13am

The Democrat spin on yesterday’s poll from Mason-Dixon was one that had a red-state, underdog Democrat defying the odds to tie up the Republican favorite. Unfortunately for that narrative, this isn’t the first time Heitkamp tied Berg in this poll.

Mason-Dixon polled this race previously, back in early June, and again showed an effective tie (Heitkamp was up by 1 point). Since that poll the Heitkamp campaign has engaged in a furious offensive against Berg, casting him as a sleazy landlord in campaign commercials and invoking a class war against his status as one of the richest members of Congress.

And what does Heitkamp have show for it? Nothing, according to this poll. If anything, after months of fierce attacks on Berg and a carefully crafted charm offensive in the media, Heitkamp has fallen a point against Berg since June.

That’s not a position the Heitkamp campaign wants to be in, especially considering that Mason-Dixon seems to be a bit of an outlier in this race. The polls June results were sandwich in between two polls, one from Forum Communications and one from Rasmussen, showing Berg with a 7 and 9 point lead, respectively.

If Heitkamp hasn’t moved the needle in the Mason-Dixon poll, what’s to say that she’s moved the needle in those other polls?

Before this latest Mason-Dixon poll the average of all the polls done in the race was Berg +5. If nothing has changed, and that certainly seems to be the message of the latest polling, it may be safe to conclude that Berg is still +5.