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Tuesday, July 19, 2005

Iraqi Civilian Casualties At 25,000+

The Guardian - The number of Iraqi civilians who met violent deaths in the two years after the US-led invasion was today put at 24,865 by an independent research team.

The figures, compiled from Iraqi and international media reports, found US and coalition military forces were responsible for 37% of the deaths, with anti-occupation forces and insurgents responsible for 9%. A further 36% were blamed on criminal violence.

Civilian deaths attributed to US and coalition military forces peaked in the invasion period from March to May 2003 - which accounts for 30% of all civilian deaths in the two-year period - but the longer-term trend has been for increasing numbers to die at the hands of insurgents.

Figures obtained last week from the Iraqi interior ministry put the average civilian and police officer death toll in insurgent attacks from August 2004 to March 2005 at 800 a month.

John Sloboda of the Iraq Body Count project, which co-authored the report with Oxford Research Group, said the Iraqi civilian death toll was the "forgotten cost" of the decision to go to war in Iraq.

"On average, 34 Iraqis every day have met violent deaths since the invasion of March 2003," he said at the launch of the report in London.

"Our data shows that no sector of Iraqi society has escaped. We sincerely hope this research will help to inform decision makers around the world about the real needs of the Iraqi people as they struggle to rebuild their country."


I'll wait until some independent experts analyze these findings and weigh in with their opinions on the methods used before I say much, but I'm certainly more inclined to believe the numbers quoted above than those put forth by the Lancet study (which had civilian casualties at around 100,000) put out last year. Will the hysterical, anti-war left set aside their support of the previous report in favor of these numbers which, as of right now, look far more reasonable or will they continue to try and hype the outrageous findings of the Lancet report?

I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

As for the numbers quoted above, I think some of the terms they're using are a bit confusing. For instance, what does "criminal violence" entail? Are some of the actions of the "insurgency" being lumped into that category? And if so, doesn't that give a skewed view of the number of deaths the terrorists are responsible for?

The article also indicates that the majority of U.S.-caused deaths occurred back during the invasion of Iraq. How did they can an accurate accounting of those deaths? And, for that matter, how are the defining who is and is not a civilian? In a war where our enemies wear no uniforms and routinely hide behind their women and children isn't the civilian/soldier distinction and difficult one to make?

And wouldn't the U.S. totals also be inflated by the fact that these monsters do use women and children as human shields? We've all heard the stories about weapon drops being hidden in schools and convoys being attacked after they stopped to avoid running over a child in the road. What part did these tactics play in the civilian death toll?

Whatever the answers to these questions, I don't think we can allow numbers like these to deter us from our goal. We are the good guys. We're not the ones targeting civilians (and even children) with suicide attacks. We are fighting for peace and democracy. The blame for high civilian body counts should go, primarily, to our enemies, not to us.

Comments

Avatar for Chad Evans

The previous study that came out claiming over 100,000 civilian deaths did not differentiate between dead terrorists and civilians.  Of course that study has been debunked, but what is the clarification of this study?

In the past two months alone there have been close to 1,500 civilians killed in terrorist attacks from a quick count from news reports (just an estimate and not an exact science of course).  The numbers have slightly decreased from the previous timeframe so I’m unsure how they came up with only nine percent.

Chad Evans on July 19, 2005 at 11:07 am
Avatar for likwidshoe

Rob asked, Its what bothered me about the first study as well. How’d they get the number of deaths during the invasion?

They just made the number up out of thin air.

likwidshoe on July 19, 2005 at 11:07 am
Avatar for Carrick

Rob asks:

How did they can an accurate accounting of those deaths? And, for that matter, how are the defining who is and is not a civilian? In a war where our enemies wear no uniforms and routinely hide behind their women and children isn’t the civilian/soldier distinction and difficult one to make?

Nice way to frame it.  This is a question that has bothered me for a while too.

Carrick on July 19, 2005 at 11:07 am
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Its what bothered me about the first study as well.  How’d they get the number of deaths during the invasion?  Did they just ask family members?  How accurate is that?  How many family members would admit that their loved one was fighting against the Americans when he died?

There is just too many variables here to get a truly accurate picture, and most of the people doing the study seem to have an agenda in making the death toll sound worse than it really is.


When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty.

-- Thomas Jefferson

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Rob on July 19, 2005 at 11:08 am
Avatar for Seth Williams

The Iraqi government puts the number significantly lower, of course that gets little airplay.

I suspect that a lot of the terrorist attacks are categorized as “criminal” in this report. [No, I can’t know that for sure, not knowing how they put the report together.]

Seth Williams on July 19, 2005 at 05:07 pm
Avatar for Carl B.

yeah, 25,000 is far more reasonable a number of innocent lives lost than 100,000. The number is far more reasonable...there is so much more reason involved in that number than the other. Praise reason!

Carl B. on July 19, 2005 at 07:07 pm
Avatar for Dave

Well, now I can go to sleep at night.

Dave on July 19, 2005 at 08:08 pm
Avatar for Eno

Hey guys, remember that this report is based on estimates just like the first one. According to NPR (you know, that “conservative radio network), the Iraqi govt puts the figure much lower.Oh I forgot, since the government supported by 80% of the people likes Bush, we must dicount anything they say, even if their figures are based on actual counts.

Eno on July 20, 2005 at 02:07 am
Avatar for Seth Williams

Eno:
Exactly so, you’d think that the Iraqi government would have access to better records than others would. The 25,000 is based on worldwide media reports. I suspect that more than a few duplicates managed to find their way into the report, not to mention the fact that some of the reports may be a little more than skewed.

Some reports might refer to x number of “casualties”. Unfortunately, casualties has variable meaning, depending on who uses the word. It can mean deaths, but the proper (dictonary) meaning is dead and wounded.

So as I said before, without knowing more of the specifics of the report methodology, I take it with a grain of salt. I’d consider the Iraqi government’s reports as more authoratative.

Seth Williams on July 27, 2005 at 11:08 pm
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After the London bombings I learned that the British media uses the word “casualties” to describe people who were injured as well as people who were killed.  Which could lead to additional confusion.


When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty.

-- Thomas Jefferson

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Rob on July 29, 2005 at 11:07 am
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